Atherton Real Estate Sales Update for September 2011

Atherton luxury real estate sales figures for the month of September, 2011 compared to September 2010.  As you can see, the numbers are staying steady as listing prices are way up, but sales prices continue to remain down a bit from last year.

Menlo Park Real Estate Market Update

The median list price home in Menlo Park this week is $1,098,500.

Inventory has been lightening lately and the Market Action Index
has been trending up. Though days-on-market is increasing, these
are mildly positive indications for the market.

Supply and Demand

Home sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks.
While still a Buyer’s market, prices seem to have responded by
moving upward. If the demand trends continue, expect prices to
keep marching upward, especially once we see a Seller’s Market.

Market Action Index: 19 (strong buyer)
Index above 30 implies Seller’s Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Median List Price $ 1,098,500
Median Lot Size  6500 SF
Average Days on Market (DOM) 97
4,501Median House Size (sq ft) 1690
Median Number of Bedrooms: 3
Asking Price Per Square Foot $636

Despite this week’s down tic, price trends have generally been
moving up lately. Prices are below the market’s high point, and
so watch the Market Action Index as an indicator of how long this
trend will last.

The Rich Are Defaulting On Mortgages At Alarming Rate

Don’t look around at your neighbors too closely, but the well-off are losing their master suites and saying goodbye to their wine cellars.

Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population according to David Streitfeld.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic. Homes priced over a million dollars are considered luxury real estate in many areas.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment.

“The rich are different: they are more ruthless,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist.

As a recent example, five luxury properties in Los Altos were scheduled for foreclosure auctions in a recent issue of The Los Altos Town Crier, the weekly newspaper where local legal notices are posted. Four have unpaid mortgage debt of more than $1 million, with the highest amount $2.8 million.

Not so long ago, said Chris Redden, the paper’s advertising services director, “it was a surprise if we had one foreclosure a month.”

In Las Vegas, Ken Lowman, a longtime agent for luxury properties, said four of the 11 sales he brokered in June were distressed properties.

“I’ve never seen the wealthy hit like this before,” Mr. Lowman said. “They made their plans based on the best of all possible scenarios — that their incomes would continue to grow, that real estate would never drop. Not many had a plan B.”

The defaulting owners, he said, often remain as long as they can. “They’re in denial,” he said.

Here in Los Altos, where the median home price of $1.5 million makes it one of the most exclusive towns in the country, several houses scheduled for auction were still occupied this week. The people who answered the door were reluctant to explain their circumstances in any detail.

At one house, where the lender was owed $1.3 million, there was a couch out front wrapped in plastic. A woman said she and her husband had lost their jobs and were moving in with relatives. At another house, the family said they were renters. A third family, whose mortgage is $1.6 million, said they would be moving this weekend.

At a vacant house with a pool, where the lender was seeking $1.27 million, a raft and a water gun lay abandoned on the entryway floor.

Lenders are fearful that many of the 11 million or so homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will walk away from them, especially if the real estate market begins to weaken again. The so-called strategic defaults have become a matter of intense debate in recent months.

The delinquency rate on investment homes where the original mortgage was more than $1 million is now 23 percent. For cheaper investment homes, it is about 10 percent.

With second homes, the delinquency rate for both types of owners was rising in concert until the stock market crashed in September 2008. That sent the percentage of troubled million-dollar loans spiraling up much faster than the smaller loans.

“Those with high net worth have other resources to lean on if they get in trouble,” said Mr. Khater, the analyst. “If they’re going delinquent faster than anyone else, that tells me they are doing so willingly.”

Willingly, but not necessarily publicly. The rapper Chamillionaire is a plain-talking exception. He recently walked away from a $2 million house he bought in Houston in 2006.

“I just decided to let it go, give it back to the bank,” he told the celebrity gossip TV show “TMZ.” “I just didn’t feel like it was a good investment.”

The rich and successful often treat their homes as business investments and make decisions on their personal items in a similar way that they would for their businesses.  Bottom line decisions without the emotion that other homeowners may have towards their residences.  A default is a strategic default, not a failure.

“They may be less susceptible to the shame and fear-mongering used by the government and the mortgage banking industry to keep underwater homeowners from acting in their financial best interest,” Mr. White said.

The CoreLogic data measures serious delinquencies, which means the borrower has missed at least three payments in a row. At that point, lenders traditionally file a notice of default and the house enters the official foreclosure process.

In the current environment, however, notices of default are down for all types of loans as lenders work with owners in various modification programs. Even so, owners in some of the more expensive neighborhoods in and around San Francisco are beginning to head for the exit, according to data compiled by MDA DataQuick.

In Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and the most expensive neighborhood in adjoining Mountain View, defaults in the first five months of this year edged up approximately 10% over 2009 and over 400% from 2008.

The East Bay suburb of Orinda had eight notices of default for million-dollar properties, up from five in the same period last year. On Nob Hill in San Francisco, there were four, up from one. The Marina neighborhood had four, up from two.

The vast majority of owners in these upscale communities are still paying the mortgage, of course. But they appear to be cutting back in other ways. Many of the luxury real estate areas have downtown areas that are filled with empty storefronts, typically unusual in well to do areas.  Discretionary spending of the rich is affecting the little guys, who of course have mortgages to pay, thus the vicious circle.

But this is still Silicon Valley, where failure can always be considered a prelude to success.

In the middle of a workday, one troubled homeowner here leaned over his laptop at the kitchen table, trying to maneuver his way out from under his debt and figure out the next big thing.

His five-bedroom house, drained of hundreds of thousands of dollars of equity over the last 13 years, is scheduled for auction July 20. Nine months ago, after his latest business (he has had several) failed in what he called “the global meltdown,” the man, a technology entrepreneur, said he quit making his $9,000 monthly payments.

“I’m going to be downsizing,” he said.

The man spoke on the condition of anonymity because, he said, he did not want his current problems to interfere with his coming reinvention. “I’m a businessman,” he explained. “I have to be upbeat.”

Things seem to be turning a bit as some areas are showing nice price increases and we all have to stay upbeat and fight to keep on top, irregardless of whether you are looking to buy or sell off your luxury real estate.  If things don’t look great, just look around at your neighborhood, you’re not alone.

Home Sales Surge As Tax Credit Deadline Approaches

But What Will Happen After April 30?

Atherton Average Home Price: $5.6 Million

The statistics are in and the average price of a home that was sold in February was 5.6 million dollars, up from a typical January low.  Not a bad statistic if you might be selling, but a challenging number if you are on the buying side.

I have seen several 10-12 million dollar homes that are just hitting the market, so maybe that is why the average listing price in February was $6.23 million and rising.  Here are the statistics for the past year.

Short Sales Could Mean Big Taxes!

Just When You Think You Are Back On Your Feet, The IRS Keeps You In The Prone Position.

If you are considering a real estate short sale of your home, you should be aware that you may receive a form 1099-C for the amount of the lender’s losses. This is considered loan forgiveness in the eyes of the IRS.

If you have other assets such as saving and you are not insolvent, you may end up being responsible to pay ordinary taxes on the amount of the 1099-C.

If you settle a debt with a creditor for less than the full amount owed, you may be required to report this forgiven debt as regular income, with certain important exceptions. The forgiven debts include money owed after foreclosure or property repossession or credit accounts that you don’t pay. There are exceptions noted below.

If a lender forgives or writes off $600 or more of a debt’s principal (the amount not including interest or fees), they must send you and the IRS a Form 1099-C at the end of the year. When you file your tax return for the tax year in which your debt was written off, the IRS will require that you report the amount on the form as income.

While you may not have received this form from the creditor, the creditor may have submitted one to the IRS anyway. If you don’t list the income on your tax return and the IRS has the information of the transaction on file, you could get a tax bill or, worse, an audit notice. This could end up costing you more than just the original tax bill.

There are several exceptions stated in the Internal Revenue Code. For example, you do not have to report the income on your tax return if the write off of the debt is intended as a gift, you discharge the debt in bankruptcy, or you were insolvent before the creditor agreed to settle or write off the debt. You should consult a qualified tax and legal counsel to see if these circumstances apply.

So, just when you thought you found a way to solve your problems, the IRS makes sure they are there to prevent it from happening.

Mortgage Update: Government Backing Out!

News Not Good For Interest Rates

Government Bailing?

The Fed kept mortgage rates low in 2009 by acting as a buyer of securities issued by or backed by three government-controlled entities: the Government National Mortgage Association (known as Ginnie Mae), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These so-called agency securities provide funding for more than half of all U.S. home loans outstanding.  The government announced that they want to reduce their buying and let the banks step up and own them.  This may cause mortgage rates to rise as we all know banks are more than happy to pass along any incremental risks on a loan to the consumer in the form of higher rates.

The New Jobs Report and Real Estate

The highly anticipated Jobs Report arrived last Friday morning, showing 85,000 jobs lost during December…and while this was a bit worse than expected, the report also carried some good news, in that the prior month’s revisions showed that November actually had a final tabulation of job gains for the month, for the first time since December 2007.

Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 10%. While this all seems to indicate some level of improvement in the labor market – you do have to look beneath the surface to clearly understand the present realities for the labor market.

The Labor Department does use a household survey to calculate the Unemployment Rate – and remember, it stayed stable at 10% – but the calculation is determined by how many people are presently in the workforce. And the household survey indicated that last month, 661,000 people left the workforce.

Whoa – what does “leaving the workforce” mean? And where exactly are they going? Let’s take a closer look … Continue Reading